Kaneohe Base, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

917
FXHW60 PHFO 270137
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
337 PM HST Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The forecast will trend drier as ridging builds into the region.
Occasional pockets of moisture embedded within moderate to locally
breezy trades will continue to support mainly windward and mauka
showers for the next several days. Trade winds could veer to
become more east-southeasterly as speeds decrease a bit by the
second half of the weekend. The overall drier pattern will
continue well into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon, surface high pressure centered far northeast of
the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive locally breezy
easterly trade winds across the state. Ridging in the wake of an
exiting weak disturbance aloft is resulting in drier conditions
today than those experienced the past couple of days, though a
weak upper jet is steering a thin layer of cirrus across the
eastern half of the state. Afternoon satellite and radar imagery
shows very few showers across the state, and rain gauge networks
show that most locations have received very little or no rainfall
since this morning. Observed 00z soundings at Hilo and Lihue show
strong inversions between roughly 6,500 and 7,500 feet, with ample
dry air aloft. Low cloud cover is also confined mostly to the
typical windward and mauka sections of the islands. This is in
addition to the afternoon sea-breeze induced increase in cloud and
shower coverage over the Kona slopes of the Big Island.

Global forecast models remain in good agreement that the
surface high far northeast of the state will remain nearly
stationary through Saturday as it experiences minor fluctuations
in intensity. This will result in moderate to breezy trade winds
continuing across the main Hawaiian Islands into the weekend. The
overall drier trend will continue as well, though pockets of low-
level moisture trapped beneath the inversion will result in
occasional windward and mauka showers, particularly during the
overnight through early morning hours each day.

During the second half of the weekend and into early next week,
the surface high to our far northeast will weaken further and
move closer to the continental U.S. as a front makes its way
across the North Pacific and a new high develops far north-
northwest of the state. As this occurs, trades will likely weaken
a bit more and veer to become more east-southeasterly during the
first half of next week. Showers are expected to be fairly
limited throughout this time, mainly favoring windward and mauka
areas during the overnight through early morning hours each day.
Guidance remains consistent that the second half of next week
could be even drier as a new surface high becomes established to
our northeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Beneath a transparent shield of cirrus and patchy mid-level
clouds, VFR prevails as breezy trades persist at the surface.
Little in the way of upstream moisture suggests MVFR remains
patchy in nature and confined to windward and mauka areas, mainly
overnight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low-level lee turb.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure northeast of the state will drive moderate to fresh
trade winds for the next several days, with only a slight
variation in wind speed and direction expected. A disturbance
passing well north of the area late this weekend into early next
week may weaken the local pressure gradient slightly and allow the
trades to ease. The lightest wind speeds are expected Sunday
through Tuesday and are expected to veer out of the east-
southeast.

The current south swell that produced near summer average surf
will continue to gradually fade to background levels tomorrow
into the weekend. Models show another small, long period south
swell arriving Sunday into early next week that should boost south
shore surf back up to near average surf.

Surf along east shores will remain rough and choppy for the next
several days. Surf may lower a notch as the trade winds ease
late this weekend into early next week. Surf along north facing
shores will remain tiny through the period.

Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will cause minor
coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas this
afternoon into the early evening during the daily peak high tide.
The Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through this evening and
then will likely be allowed to expire as water levels are
expected to drop and remain below criteria as daily peak high
tides lower and south swell dissipates.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Vaughan
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Tsamous/Farris